F1 2023 title permutations: When can Max Verstappen win the World Championship?

Sam Cooper
Red Bull's Max Verstappen lifts his 2022 crown.

Max Verstappen is edging ever closer to a third World title and we have worked out exactly when he could win it.

It now seems a matter of when, not if Verstappen will pick up his third title, making him the joint-sixth most successful driver in history alongside Jack Brabham, Sir Jackie Stewart, Niki Lauda, Nelson Piquet and Ayrton Senna.

With a 138-point lead in the championship over team-mate Sergio Perez and having won the last nine races, here is when the Dutchman is likely to do it.

Who can still stop Max Verstappen winning the World Championship?

There are now just seven drivers who, in theory, could still mathematically win the title regardless.

The list of potential candidates stretches from George Russell in 7th with Lando Norris being the latest name to be ruled out meaning Carlos Sainz, Russell, Charles Leclerc, Lewis Hamilton, Fernando Alonso and Sergio Perez are all still in the running.

Realistically though, the greatest threat to Verstappen’s success is his team-mate Perez but it would take quite the capitulation from the Dutchman for this to become a reality.

When is the earliest Max Verstappen can win the World Championship?

Should Verstappen win the next two grands prix while securing the fastest lap point and Perez fail to finish then his title will be secured at the conclusion of the Japanese Grand Prix.

In terms of records, that would seem him tie Michael Schumacher’s 2002 season for the earliest win by number of grands prix left but in terms of percentage of races, the German takes it having secured the title with only 64% of the season gone compared to Verstappen’s 73%.

Such a result would see Verstappen beat his tally of four races to go set last year.

Should Verstappen win every race but fail to get the fastest lap, then the champagne would be put on ice until the Qatar Grand Prix and should Perez come second every race, Verstappen will also win the title in Lusail.

What if Max Verstappen fails to win another race?

但在理论Verstappen可能似乎Dutch victory could be his last of the season but even if that were to be the case, he still has a pretty good chance of winning the title.

Should the Dutchman finish second to Perez’s first at every race and sprint, he will win the championship at the Mexican Grand Prix with three races left to go.

If he comes third in every race then he will have to wait until the Las Vegas Grand Prix.


As well as their speed, the reality of the Red Bull car has been remarkable this year and Verstappen has yet to DNF in a race.

His lowest finishes are the two P2s he secured in Azerbaijan and Saudi Arabia but should the unthinkable happen and the RB19 lose its reliability then it is not alarm bells just yet.

Verstappen could afford five grand prix DNFs and the Qatar and Austin sprint and still win the title, meaning he could miss 23% of the season and still be the champion.

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When can Red Bull win the World Championship?

Of course, it is not just Verstappen on the hunt to retain his crown but also Red Bull who are looking to win their sixth Constructors’ crown.

Like the Dutchman, Red Bull have a healthy lead at the top of the table with a 285-point lead over second place Mercedes.

But there are in theory five teams capable of winning the title including Mclaren, Ferrari, Aston Martin and Mercedes.

In reality, Red Bull’s ascension is a matter of time and that time could come at the Singapore Grand Prix. That situation will occur if they one-two including the fastest lap in Monza and then score at least 24 points in Singapore while Mercedes fail to score any.

If Mercedes beat Red Bull to every one-two between now and the end of the season, the championship will still be going to Milton Keynes by the end of the United States Grand Prix.

Like Verstappen, Red Bull also have a safety net meaning they could get two double DNFs and still win the title.

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